** Progress in Earth and Planetary Science is the official journal of the Japan Geoscience Union, published in collaboration with its society members.
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Research
Solid earth sciences
202409202409
A methodology for appropriate withdrawal of tsunami warnings based on numerical simulations
Naoko Shinmoto, Toshitaka BabaNaoko Shinmoto, Toshitaka Baba
Observed and calculated withdrawal times of tsunami warnings and advisories. Circles and squares represent the tsunami warnings and advisories, respectively. Red and yellow represent the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Maule earthquakes, respectively.
This study performed large-scale numerical simulations for predicting the attenuation of tsunamis caused by the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, and 2010 Maule, Chile earthquakes, recorded at Japanese tide gauges. Tsunami amplitude waveforms were generated by computing the moving root-mean-square of the data for quantitative analyses. Sensitivity analysis showed that tsunami nonlinearity and computational grid intervals near the tide gauges significantly impact the prediction of tsunami attenuation. The predicted withdrawal times of tsunami warnings agreed with the observations; however, time discrepancies were observed for advisory withdrawals at several stations. Using the proposed method, we predicted the warning period of a great interplate earthquake in the Nankai Trough to be approximately one day. These findings can provide critical information for disaster prevention because the withdrawal of warnings is directly related to permission to enter coastal areas affected by the tsunami, whereas unnecessarily long warnings hinder rescue operations.
