** Progress in Earth and Planetary Science is the official journal of the Japan Geoscience Union, published in collaboration with its 50 society members.

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    • Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
    • Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
    • Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
    • Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
    • Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
    Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

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    Simulated distributions of pumice rafts in Japan following eruptions at volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes

    Haruka Nishikawa, Tatsu Kuwatani, Noriko Tada, Hiromi Kayama Watanabe

    Pumice, Submarine volcano, Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, Particle tracking experiment, Dispersion, Natural hazard

    The average number of virtual pumice clasts arriving at each target area after being released from the submarine volcano NNE of Iriomote Island. The black star represents the location of the volcano source. The numbers reported were averaged over all simulations; for example, an average of 7,318 of the total 49,000 virtual pumice clasts released from the submarine volcano NNE of Iriomote Island were transported to Okinawa per simulation. The radii of the pie charts are proportional to the logarithm of the average number of virtual pumice clasts that arrived at each target area. The color scale of the pie charts indicates the average drift duration of each proportion of the virtual pumice clasts that arrived. The blue lines are the simulated drift paths of 50 randomly selected virtual pumice.

    Voluminous pumice rafts produced by the 2021 phreatomagmatic eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a submarine volcano located in the Izu-Bonin Islands, reached many Japanese ports and islands, damaging fisheries and hindering marine traffic and trade. This event emphasized the necessity for governments and stakeholders to develop plans in advance and prepare disaster mitigation measures before an eruption. To investigate when and to what extent pumice might intersect trade routes and arrive at islands after future eruptions, we conducted particle tracking simulations of eruptions at major volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes near Japan using the velocity field from the ocean reanalysis dataset. Seven major volcanoes that have produced pumice rafts in the past century were selected: the submarine volcano NNE of Iriomote Island, Izu-Tobu Volcanoes, Miyakejima, Bayonnaise Rocks, Nishinoshima, Kaitoku Seamount, and Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba. We partly reproduced the distribution of pumice arrivals recorded after the 1986 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the simulations. We report likely pumice raft arrivals and drifting durations for the investigated eruptive scenarios, which may aid future risk assessments for pumice arrivals.