** Progress in Earth and Planetary Science is the official journal of the Japan Geoscience Union, published in collaboration with its 50 society members.
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Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences
202007202007
A Development of Reduction Scenarios of the Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) for Mitigating Global Warming and Environmental Problems
Nakajima T, Ohara T, Masui T, Takemura T, Yoshimura K, Goto D, Hanaoka T, Itahashi S et al.Nakajima T, Ohara T, Masui T, Takemura T, Yoshimura K, Goto D, Hanaoka T, Itahashi S, Kurata G, Kurokawa J, Maki T, Masutomi Y, Nakata M, Nitta T, Seposo X, Sudo K, Suzuki C, Suzuki K, Tsuruta H, Ueda K, Watanabe S, Yu Y, Yumimoto K, Zhao S
Short-lived climate pollutants, Global warming, Mitigation scenario, Climate Change, Air pollution, Environmental problem
Fig. 1 (a) Time series of global SO2 and black carbon (BC) emissions from 2010 to 2050, and (b) global excess mortalities (million persons) due to PM2.5 and high temperature for Ref2010 and seven scenarios in the 2040s.
This study presents the results of the ERTDF S-12 project for searching an optimum reduction scenario of the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) to simultaneously mitigate the global warming and environmental problems. The study utilized REAS emission inventory, Asia-Pacific Integrated Model-Enduse (AIM/Enduse), MIROC6 climate model, NICAM non-hydrostatic atmospheric model, and models for estimating environmental damages to health, agriculture, and flood risks. Results of various scenario search indicate that it is difficult to attain simultaneous reduction of global warming and environmental damages, unless a significant reduction of CO2 is combined with carefully designed SLCP reductions for CH4, SO2, black carbon (BC), NOx, CO, and VOCs. In this scenario design, it is important to take into account the impact of small BC reduction to the surface air temperature and complex atmospheric chemical interactions such as negative feedback between CH4 and NOx reduction. We identified two scenarios, i.e., B2a and B1c scenarios which combine the 2D-scenario with SLCP mitigation measures using End-of-Pipe (EoP) and new mitigation technologies, as promising to simultaneously mitigate the temperature rise by about 0.33 °C by 2050 and air pollution in most of the globe for reducing damages in health, agriculture, and flood risk. In Asia and other heavy air pollution areas, health-care measures have to be enhanced in order to suppress the mortality increase due to high temperature in hot spot areas caused by a significant cut of particulate matter. For this situation, the B1b scenario is better to reduce hot spot areas and high-temperature damage to the public health.
